Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley said: “We accept this verdict.” The Third Front has also conceded the election.

Official results will flood in soon but the trends reported by state TV showed Congress ahead in 246 seats, the BJP in 159 and the Third Front in 60.

Congress supporters have already begun celebrating in Delhi.

Rajnath Singh, president of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, told reporters it had not expected this kind of result. “We will sit together later today, once all the results are out, and analyse what happened,” he said.

Mr Jaitley said: “Something certainly did go wrong… Our performance was not up to expectation.”

Prakash Karat, the leader of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the key mover in the Third Front, accepted Congress had won.

“The CPM and the Left parties have suffered a major setback,” he said.

The BBC’s Chris Morris in Delhi says that a small crowd has already gathered outside Congress headquarters to celebrate, banging drums and chanting slogans.

‘Safe majority’

Counting began at 0800 local time (0230 GMT) and with electronic voting machines being used the first trends were quickly available.

INDIAN ELECTION AT A GLANCE
Eligible voters: 714 million
Polling centres: 828,804
Voting days: 16, 23, 30 April; 7, 13 May
Vote counting: 16 May

Elections battleground map

State television Doordarshan said that at 1330 local time across all 543 seats, the Congress alliance was ahead in 246, the BJP coalition in 159 and the Third Front in 60 with others at 78.

Congress appears to be doing far better than had been expected, confounding predictions particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat.

Congress alliance spokesman Kapil Sibal told Reuters news agency: “Together with our alliance partners, we will have a safe majority.”

A policewoman guards a locked room, with EVMs inside, in Jaipur

Finally The Day of Countdown

Pfizer Inc. says it will provide 70 of its most widely prescribed prescription drugs — including Lipitor and Viagra — for free to people who have lost their jobs and health insurance.

The world’s biggest drugmaker said Thursday it will give away the medicines for up to a year to Americans who lost jobs since Jan. 1 and have been on the Pfizer drug for three months or more.

The announcement comes amid massive job losses caused by the recession and a campaign in Washington to rein in health care costs and extend coverage. The move could earn Pfizer some goodwill in that debate after long being a target of critics of drug industry prices and sales practices.

The program also likely will help keep those patients loyal to Pfizer brands.

The Pakistani government and army seem incapable or unwilling to tackle the Taleban threat in the north-west, argues guest columnist Ahmed Rashid.

Unprecedented political and military disarray in Pakistan and a growing public feeling of helplessness is helping fuel the rapid expansion of the Taleban across northern Pakistan, bringing them closer to paralysing state institutions in their bid to seize total power.

Even though most Pakistanis agree that the Pakistani Taleban and their extremist allies now pose the biggest threat to the Pakistani state since its creation, both the army and the government appear to be in denial of reality and the facts.

Within weeks of concluding a deal with the government on the imposition of Islamic law in the strategically located Swat valley, the Taleban have already broken the agreement by refusing to disarm, taken control of the region’s administration, police and education while spilling out into adjacent valleys.

‘No need to worry’

Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani persuaded parliament to pass the Sharia agreement into law, insisting the Taleban pose no threat to the state. Threats by the Taleban to abrogate the agreement forced President Asif Ali Zardari to hurriedly sign the bill, even though he had tried delaying tactics.

Only parliamentarians from the Sindh-based Muttahida Quami Movement courageously voted against the bill.

The refusal of either the government or the army to respond to its greatest threat since the country split apart with the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 reflects a chronic failure of leadership

Send your views on this article

Even though the agreement ignores the constitution by setting up a new legal system in the valley, which is not genuine Islamic law but the Taleban’s brutal interpretation of it, Mr Gilani reiterated on 18 April that ”whatever we have done is in accordance with the constitution and there is no need to worry”.

In fact the majority of Pakistanis are desperately worried, asking how the state could concede so quickly.

The Swat Taleban added fuel to the fire by inviting Osama Bin Laden to settle in Swat, indicating their complete control of the valley.

On 20 April, Sufi Muhammad, a radical leader who the government and the army have termed as ”a moderate” and whose son in law Fazlullah is the leader of the Swat Taleban, said that democracy, the legal system of the country and civil society should be disbanded as they were all ”systems of infidels”.

Pakistani troops
The army’s rationale appears to be to do nothing

The Taleban have now infiltrated western and southern Punjab province with the help of Punjabi extremist groups, the second largest city of Lahore and the southern port city of Karachi.

Even more surprising has been the attitude of the army, which has declined all international and local pressure to curb the spread of the Taleban.

The army’s only military response was when it bombed the tribal areas after 25 of its soldiers were killed in a suicide bomb attack near Hangu in North West Frontier Province on 18 April.

That dismayed many Pakistanis because it showed the army was willing to only attack the Taleban when its own soldiers had suffered.

Groups of militias who have resisted the Taleban in Swat and other places were left to fight on their own without the military’s support for weeks on end.

With the Taleban taking control of Buner district – although they have now said they will withdraw – and Dir as well as moving north to take over the Karakoram Highway that links Pakistan to China, there is the fear that Pakistan will soon reach a tipping point.

With the Taleban having opened so many fronts, it will soon be impossible for the army to respond to the multiple threats it faces.

US and Nato

The army’s rationale for doing nothing appears deeply irrational to many Pakistanis.

The army still insists that India remains the major threat, so 80% of its forces are still aligned on the Indian border instead of defending the country against Taleban expansion.

The army has also refused to respond to US and Nato demands to oust the Afghan Taleban leadership living on its soil.

School in Swat
The Taleban have destroyed many schools in Swat

And despite US President Barack Obama’s plan to deepen the commitment to stabilise Afghanistan, the army insists that the Americans will soon leave Afghanistan and that Pakistan must be ready with a response to help install a pro-Pakistan government in Kabul.

That rationale is also motivated by India’s friendship with the present Afghan government.

Meanwhile two of Pakistan’s closest allies, China and Saudi Arabia, have strongly indicated to the government that its continuing tolerance of the Taleban and al-Qaeda on its soil is endangering the national security of these two countries.

With the entire international community now pointing out that the Taleban threat to Pakistan is dire, Islamabad finds itself diplomatically isolated as it continues to fail to respond.

For the Americans and Nato the situation is quickly reaching a crisis point.

With Washington sending 21,000 additional troops to southern Afghanistan, Nato sending another 5,000 to secure the Afghan elections in August and large numbers of Western civilian experts due to arrive to help rebuild the country, neither the US nor Nato can for long tolerate the stream of supplies and recruits that continue to pour into Afghanistan from Pakistan to support the Afghan Taleban offensive against Western forces.

The Pakistani Taleban, even while continuing their penetration of central Pakistan, are also mobilising fresh recruits from all over the country to go help their Afghan Taleban brothers resist the newly arriving Western troops.

For Pakistanis and the international community the refusal of either the government or the army to respond to its greatest threat since the country split apart with the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 reflects a chronic failure of leadership, will and commitment to the people of Pakistan.

The following are some of your comments on Ahmed Rashid’s article:

I agree with Ahmed Rashid! Why? Because 18,000 troops deployed in Swat for a year and a half deliberately avoided targeting the thugs. All the army did was base itself in pastures and forests populated only by wild animals and livestock. In a small ravine like that of Peuchar in Swat, the mega-thug could hide from our well-fed army. How is that an army of 18,000 – fully equipped and trained – could not fight only about 1,000 Taleban thugs? The maths is not right. Something fishy stinks though.
AK Swati, Swat, Pakistan

If we really want to get rid of the Taleban, we should invite the Chinese and Indian military in, give them a wide remit and let them use their own rules of engagement. It will not take long before the Taleban are no more
Iqbal, Islamabad

Ahmed Rashid is quite correct. The generals are frozen by their oath to defend Pakistan against Indian attack and the poorly paid soldiers see no reason to die fighting kith and kin. The biggest danger is the collapse of the state into four quadrants with the MQM defending Sindh and the Balochis choosing independence.
Pravin, USA

This is a really disturbing period in the history of Pakistan. It is on the verge of total capitulation. What strikes me as strange is why the people of Pakistan don’t stand up? They marched nationally for a judge, but can’t rise to oust the Taleban? Come on… I think it is a case of people being too stubborn. They still want to blame India… get over it! If Pakistan is taken over by the Taleban, India will have won anyway. I remember when Pakistan was close to war with India over Kashmir in 2003, one million troops were mobilised. Yet, yesterday 300 troops were sent to fight the Taleban. Furthermore, I feel that the US owes Pakistan as they have simply pushed the Taleban from Afghanistan to Pakistan. They kept pushing them back and back and eventually, they came in. The US has passed their problems onto a weak nation.
Z, UK

Pakistan is on course of self-destruction. Due to decades of corruption, divisive policies and injustice from the leadership; the people of Pakistan lack the pride and loyalty to fight for their homeland. As a Pakistani I find this very shameful.
Ali, Pakistan

The best propaganda is the one that’s mixed with some half-truths. This article is a perfect example of this. How do you know what the majority of Pakistanis think about the Taleban? I’m a Pakistani and the vast majority of Pakistanis support the Taleban because they are fighting for a noble cause. The people don’t support the government because it is corrupt from the top to the bottom. They don’t support the army because the army doesn’t care about anyone else. They don’t support the West because they are the invaders.
Faris, Azad Kashmir

This is a classic example of democracy becoming demo-crazy. In Pakistan there is a serious shortage of sincere leaders and knowledgeable people. The only system that seems to work in Pakistan is the doctrine of “you scratch my back and I will scratch yours”. The West should crack the whip now before it is too late. If anyone would like to help Pakistan, then they should impose a system which is based on three fundamentals; education, education and education.
H, Canada

If I had no outside contact except the news channels I would be able to get out of my house. For Pakistanis the greater threat is the American drone attacks on its soil which kill innocent people instead of the Taleban. As for the MQM “courageously voting against the bill” isn’t that because they don’t want a bigger bully in the playground?
Kanza Akhwand, Pakistan

Most people in the Fata/NWFP areas see the US drone attacks in very much the same light as Americans saw the destruction of the World Trade Center buildings in New York. So if the Americans want to encourage the public to support the Taleban, they are doing just the right thing.
Robert Steinhilber, USA

Whatever became of the idea, many years ago, of an independent “Pashtunistan”? The alternative seems to be endless war in Afghanistan-Pakistan and a gradual increase in militant Islamism in the area.
Jules Benjamin, USA

Western countries should stop meddling in the affairs of Pakistan, or rather all Islamic countries. It is downright stupid to send aid to Pakistan which will be used to further augment regiments of the Taleban.Stop dealing with all these people and let Saudi Arabia give all the aid. Don’t create – by consistent use of the adjective “nuclear armed” – an unnecessary sense of fear. After all it is India which should be the most bothered about it. If the Pakistani army is strong enough to fight India it can tackle Taleban.
Raghunatha R Juvvadi, USA

Our president needs to be taken out of office before he looses our nuclear assets to the Taleban!!!
Umer Mumtaz, Pakistan

Please do not stop writing about this insanity. Finally people are realising the real threat to us and all of Pakistan. We need to push this incompetent government and army to do something about it. Does any one really think that in this time and day India will attack us?. Especially when the US and Nato are fighting in Afghanistan? And what would India really get out of it? India is far too occupied in its economic growth and new found position as a major global power. In fact, India will thank us once we get rid of this nightmare, as it is spilling in their country too.It is for the first time in the brief history of this country that we are really about to be wiped out. Our religion, our culture our history is under attack. Anyone sitting idle about what is going on needs to speak and take action.
Anosh Gill, USA

It might not be the right comparison in terms of ideology and motives, but as far as the military strategy is concerned, the Taleban are following pretty much the same tactics as Maoists and Naxalites in India. They mainly engage in guerrilla-style warfare with the focus is on remote rural areas where state control is minimum and where they can take control of such areas with the minimum possible fighting with state forces. So far their strategy is very successful as they started with remote tribal areas where the writ of the Pakistan government is limited. The Talebans never really faced any major resistance that could halt their advancement. They are slowly but steadily encircling the urban centres – and in the case of Sawat – they have already have full control on it. They are not in hurry because they know once they have control over rural areas, the urban centres will fall automatically.
Saleem Sheikh, New Zealand

Addressing the eighth National Maritime Search and Rescue Board meeting here on Thursday, Vice Admiral Chopra said, “Besides inking contract for global maritime distress safety system (GMDSS) for all Maritime Rescue Coordination Centres (MRCCs) in the country, manpower sanctions have also been obtained for another eight Maritime Rescue Sub Centres (MRSCs).”

“While our search and rescue (SAR) efforts are not limited to Indian region alone, a close liaison being maintained with all Indian Ocean Rim nations and beyond,” he added.

Responding to a question on further cooperation on SAR activities, Vice Admiral Chopra said, “Mechanisms have already been institutionalised with Japan and Korea, and further engagement with the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore is also envisaged.”

While commending ISRO’s initiative to supply 1000 low-cost distress alert transmitters (DATs) free for distribution to fishermen of coastal states as remarkable, Vice Admiral Chopra urged the Director General-Shipping, coastal states and the ISRO to look into the certification part of DATs and take measures for mandatory carriage of the equipment by all fishing boats.

Two annual search and rescue awards, which were instituted by the NMSAR board, were also given away during the meet. The Indian Coast Guard SAR Award for the merchant ship with the most significant contribution in saving lives at sea was awarded to MV CSK Fortune, while for its own, ICGS Varad received Essar SAR Award for best efforts in saving 17 crew of fishing trawler Skipper-III.

Besides Coast Guard officials, representatives from Indian Navy, Indian Air Force and several other stakeholders participated in the annual meet.

“As for the response, that’s something you’ll have to ask the Indian Navy about,” he added.

Howard also said the company was open to collaborating with India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) on integrating its Prithvi Air Defence Shield (PADS) with the Aegis launcher and command and control system.

“Yes, we are open to collaborative measures. It all depends on what you (the Indian Navy and DRDO) want,” the official said.

The Aegis system, explained Richard G. Kirkland, president for South Asia of Lockheed Martin Global Inc., “is not meant to defend the ship it is mounted on but tasked to defend a broad area of sea lanes”.

He pointed out that 14 successful tests of the Aegis system had been conducted so far to intercept incoming targets within and outside the earth’s atmosphere, including one in November 2007 in which two short-range ballistic missiles were near simultaneously intercepted and destroyed.

And, in February 2008, a long-range missile fired from a specially-modified Aegis system successfully shot down a toxic US satellite with a precision strike that ensured that no “hot” debris fell earthwards.

“We completed the modification in 60 days,” Kirkland pointed out.

The Aegis system can track more than 100 missiles with its electronic systems and supercomputers, and engage them according to their threat priority.

It can engage, and strike, targets in the air, on sea, on the surface, and also sub-surface. The system’s command and decision-making core allows its computers to differentiate between missiles, debris, and friendly aerial vehicles, launching an attack only on what needs to be attacked.

Apart from the US Navy, the Aegis system is operational on Japanese, South Korean, Norwegian, Spanish and Australian naval vessels.

It is currently deployed on 85 ships around the globe with more than 20 additional ships planned or under contract.

Gen. David Petraeus urged Congress to approve $3 billion in aid to Pakistan for training its troops to fight insurgents in tribal areas.

“The most important, most pressing threat to the very existence of their country is the threat posed by the internal extremists and groups such as the Taliban and the syndicated extremists,” Petraeus told a House panel Friday. Petraeus is the top U.S. commander overseeing troops in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Pakistani military needs to fight extremists “rather than strictly focus on the conventional threat that has been traditionally the focus of the military, to their east, which is India,” he said.

Pakistan and India have fought three wars over the Kashmir border region, and their continuing enmity has been the dominant factor affecting foreign policy for both nuclear-armed rivals.

As recently as December, following the bloody terror attacks in the Indian financial center in Mumbai, Pakistan moved thousands of troops from the Afghan border to the Indian frontier.

It was seen as an indication that Pakistan might retaliate if India launched air or missile strikes against militant targets on Pakistani soil.

Top officials in the Obama administration have voiced increasing concern in recent days as Taliban forces spilled out from their new stronghold in the Swat Valley and into a neighboring region within 60 miles of Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.

Earlier this week, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned of the insurgent advances as an “existential threat” to Pakistan, then added that Pakistani leaders appeared to be responding to that peril.

At the State Department on Friday, spokesman Robert A. Wood refrained from criticizing Pakistan directly.

“We, the international community, have to help Pakistan meet these threats,” Wood said. “But what’s important is that Pakistan take the measures necessary to deal with the threat it faces. … They need to take very decisive action to deal with these elements. These elements are a threat to not only Pakistan’s internal security, but to its neighbors.”

The Obama administration views the elimination of militant sanctuaries in Pakistan as critical to success in the Afghan war and preventing another Sept. 11-style terrorist strike on the United States. Al-Qaida’s top leaders are believed to be hiding in tribal areas near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan.

Petraeus asked the House Appropriations subcommittee for $3 billion to help Pakistan root out and stop insurgents. Though some limited training has been ongoing, Petraeus said top Pakistani leaders have yet to give “complete commitment” to the mission by enabling its forces.

“The military by itself can’t do it,” he said.

Lawmakers on the panel did not offer a complete commitment to Petraeus’ money pitch but generally voiced support for his mission.

The Obama administration is sending an estimated 68,000 troops to Afghanistan over the next several years to bolster security there. Petraeus called al-Qaida and its allies “transnational extremists” who live along and cross the mountainous border.

Separately, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said in an interview broadcast Friday that he was “extremely concerned” about the Taliban’s recent moves closer to Islamabad.

Adm. Mike Mullen said he hoped the arrival soon of an additional 17,000 U.S. combat troops in Afghanistan will stabilize things there and in neighboring Pakistan.

“We’re going as fast as we can go right now and we want to get it right,” he said on NBC’s “Today” show.

But Mullen also said the Afghan people “have to take over security for their nation. That’s the only way we’re going to be successful.”

The Israeli-built Radar Imaging Satellite was launched from the space centre at Sriharikota in southern Andhra Pradesh state.

The satellite was carried on the Indian Space Research Organisation’s PSLV-C12 rocket.

India has an ambitious space programme that last October saw its first unmanned mission to the Moon.

The 300kg satellite has been placed in orbit about 550km (340 miles) above the Earth.

Observers say monitoring the borders with Pakistan will be a key task given the strained relations in the wake of last November’s Mumbai attacks.

The satellite can take images through all weather conditions and as well as defence duties it will be able to monitor natural disasters such as floods and landslides.

The satellite was developed by Israel Aerospace Industries.

The rocket also contained the Anusat educational satellite, which will help transfer confidential material such as examination questions as well as track urban planning developments and the effects of drought.

In October India successfully launched its first unmanned lunar craft, Chandrayaan 1, to map the Moon’s surface and look for traces of water and the presence of helium.

The mission was regarded as a major step for India as it sought to keep pace with other space-faring nations in Asia.

COIMBATORE, INDIA – At 6:46 p.m. Thursday, R. Sampathkumar signed a check for 3,809 rupees ($78) and ordered his first car: a Tata Nano.

Bookings for the ultracheap car, which retails for 100,000 rupees ($2,050) plus tax and transport fees, opened Thursday across India.

Sampathkumar, who is 30 years old and single, makes about 20,000 rupees a month ($410) as a goldsmith and says he wants a Nano for “status.”

“Automatically, women will come forward,” he said, grinning.

Dozens gathered Thursday to gawk at the silver Nano sitting on a red platform with pink satin skirting at the Tata dealership in Coimbatore, a mid-sized manufacturing hub in southern India. Two DJs blasted Backstreet Boys, Ricky Martin and Madonna songs, while college kids snapped photos of the snub-nosed car on their cell phones.

Despite the festivities, analysts say Nano sales won’t do much in the short term to help debt-strapped Tata Motors, which is facing falling sales and is in talks with banks to refinance a $2 billion loan it took out to buy Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford last year.

Vaishali Jajoo, auto analyst at Mumbai’s Angel Broking, estimated that even if Tata Motors manages to sell 250,000 Nanos a year, it will only add 3 percent to the company’s total revenues.

Production constraints mean Sampathkumar won’t get his new Nano until July, at the earliest. Violent farmer protests forced Tata to relocate at the last minute a factory that was to exclusively build Nanos, and the replacement won’t be operational before year’s end.

Customers who want to buy the Nano must pay 300 rupees for an application form, then pay the entire cost of the car or get financing from one of 18 banks Tata Motors made special arrangements with.

Tata will accept orders until April 25 and then randomly select 100,000 people who will get the first shipment of vehicles. Everyone else will have to wait. Tata will pay interest on booking deposits: 8.5 percent for people who have to wait one to two years to get their Nano, and 8.75 percent for those who hold out longer.

Tata spokesman Debasis Ray said the company would not release data on the number of orders until after the process closed, but added that “the signs are encouraging.”

He said 300,000 people had visited Tata’s 400 showrooms across the country since the car went on display April 1.

In the last two weeks, the Nano Web site has gotten 20 million hits, he said.

K. Thamilarasu, the divisional sales manager for Tata Motors in Coimbatore, said 21 people paid for the car in full at his dealership Thursday. Another 19 made downpayments for financing arrangements.

“I have been in this field three decades,” Thamilarasu said. “This is the first time we are noticing a revolution.”

Rajeswari Nandagopal, a teacher, paid 300 rupees for a booking form because she wants to buy a Nano for her son, 17, who currently rides a motorbike.

“These days going on two-wheelers is a great risk,” she said.

J. Rathimasawamy, 70, a retired schoolmaster, said he sold his Maruti WagonR two months ago because he wants to buy a Nano. “It’s the cheapest,” he said.

Rathimasawamy, a wiry man with white hair and a dusty pair of flip-flops, took a bus from his home 25 miles (40 kilometers) away to buy a booking form.

Vijayakumar Jayabal, 50, a policeman who earns 12,000 rupees ($246) a month, said he wants to buy a Nano because he can’t squeeze his family of four onto his motorbike.

“We only fit three people maximum,” he said.

India shop front
India has recorded high economic growth in recent years

Predicting election outcomes in India is a hazardous activity; inferring them from economic performance is even more hazardous.

Going by per-capita income growth, one would predict a resounding victory for the ruling Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

At 7.4%, per-capita income growth during the first four years of the UPA rule has been by far the highest of any four-year period in India’s post-independence history.

Yet, if the electorate goes by the contribution the present government has made to the accelerated growth in incomes, it would hand the latter its worst defeat.

The UPA government has perhaps done the least of all governments since the 1991 Narasimha Rao-led Congress administration to advance economic reforms.

At the outset, it committed itself to not reforming India’s archaic labour laws. Sadly, it also failed to deliver in areas it had assigned high priority.

Unclear answers

Early in its tenure, the UPA had identified pension reform, further opening of the insurance sector and rapid build-up of the country’s infrastructure as high-priority areas.

More than four years later, legislation to set up a pension regulatory authority and raising the share of foreign investors from 26% to 49% are languishing in parliament.

In the entirely uncontroversial area of infrastructure, the government lost the momentum its predecessor, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, had achieved.

If the voters this time around vote on the basis of improvements in their lives, the UPA stands an excellent chance of returning to power

Send your views on this article

Even trade liberalisation, which greatly accelerated under the NDA government and was initially continued by the UPA, has come to a standstill in the past two budgets.

A costly National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, some additional opening up to foreign investment in the telecommunications sector, construction of new airports in Bangalore and Hyderabad, and the setting up of a Food Safety and Standards Authority and Competition Commission after four arduous years remain the main achievements of the government.

Will the excellent performance of the economy benefit the UPA? Or will its near paralysis in carrying forward the reforms hurt it?

Protests against economic reforms
Critics say growth has been inequitable

At least the past experience does not offer an affirmative answer in clear terms.

The government of Mr Rao, which came to power in June 1991, is credited with launching the most far-reaching and systematic economic reforms.

The reforms not only stabilised the economy following the 1991 balance of payments crisis, they also delivered the hefty 6.5% per annum growth during the last three years of his tenure.

Yet, he lost the 1996 election.

In a similar vein, led by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, the BJP-led NDA government undertook massive reforms in virtually all areas of economic activity during its tenure from 1998 to 2004.

Those reforms made a significant contribution to the shift in India’s growth rate to the current 8% to 9% growth trajectory. In the last fiscal year of the NDA government, 2003-04, the economy grew 8.5%.

Yet, the NDA government lost power to the UPA.

The popular view is that the NDA lost the election because its reforms, highlighted via its “India Shining”‘ slogan during the election campaign, mainly benefited the urbanised, industrialised India and left the rural poor behind.

But this view scarcely stands up to close scrutiny: according to the available evidence, the proportion of the poor below the poverty line significantly fell in both rural and urban areas during Mr Vajpayee’s rule.

Indian state highway
Infrastructure development has lost its momentum

Regional inequalities and the rural-urban divide did rise, as has happened in every country experiencing rapid growth at low levels of development, for the simple reason that rapid growth concentrates in a handful of urban agglomerations.

But that did not drive the election outcome either: there was neither an urban-rural nor a regional divide in the voting pattern.

The BJP-led NDA lost in richer states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu while winning in the poorer states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

In the former group of states, it lost in both rural and urban areas while in the latter group it won in both.

In recent elections, two factors seem to have critically influenced the eventual outcome: coalition formation and anti-incumbency at state level.

Today, Congress has only 153 of the 272 seats it needs for a majority in parliament. The UPA consists of 11 parties and still needs the outside support of half a dozen other parties to achieve a majority.

A dramatic example of the importance of coalition politics is provided by the role played by the southern regional party, the DMK, in 2004.

It had been with the NDA in the 1999 election but switched allegiance to the UPA in the 2004 election. Its 16 seats, subtracted from the NDA and added to the UPA, provided the balance of votes the UPA needed to from the government.

In recent years, voters have returned state governments to power only when the latter have provided decisively good management and delivered perceptible improvement in living standards.

Therefore, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat represent a handful of the cases in which the electorate returned the incumbent governments back to power.

Excellent chance

In most cases, the electorate has handed punishing defeats to incumbents even if it has meant replacing them with another equally incompetent government.

India farmer
Farming employs the majority of India’s workforce

In turn, the anti-incumbency factor at state level has spilled over to parliamentary elections. That factor substantially contributed to the losses the BJP, the dominant partner in the NDA, suffered in the 2004 election.

If the voters this time around vote on the basis of improvements in their lives, the UPA stands an excellent chance of returning to power.

Growth in agriculture, which employs 60% of India’s workforce, has been 4% in the past four years. Prosperity in rural areas is also apparent from the spread of phones. Rural tele-density today is more than 13%.

Making the conservative assumption that each household has four members, this figure implies every other household in rural India now has a cell phone.

Even the sales of motorbikes and automobiles in rural areas are now on the rise. As for urban India, some slowdown in the economy due to the crisis notwithstanding, its face has been dramatically transformed in the past four years.

Why have the average or worse performing incumbents fallen out of favour with the voters?

After all until the 1980s, the electorate had routinely returned the incumbent governments to power. In a Wall Street Journal article in 2004, Jagdish Bhagwati and I hypothesised that the key factor behind the change in voter attitude was the “revolution of rising expectations” unleashed by the reforms and the resulting growth acceleration.

As long as India took the Hindu rate of growth, the voter remained in the grip of fatalism: kya karen, bhagwan ki marzi hai (What can we do, this is God’s will!).

But once reforms showed him that change was possible and that poverty was not God’s will, he became more demanding: If the incumbent won’t deliver fast enough, he would try someone else.

In concluding, let me raise a slightly different question. Between the UPA and the NDA, the major contenders, who will provide a better government in the next five years?

Reform advocates who are also social liberals face a dilemma in answering this question.

The UPA is bound to interpret a victory as vindication of its current policies, which would seal the fate of reforms for another five years.

The NDA is more likely to return to the reforms it had vigorously promoted during its previous stint.

But alas, the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate LK Advani, who lacks the moderation of his predecessor when it comes to Hindu-Muslim relations, leads it.

The author is Professor of Economics and Jagdish Bhagwati Professor of Indian Political Economy at Columbia University and Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. His book India: The Emerging Giant was recently published by the Oxford University Press, New York.

Here is a selection of your comments.

This report claims decline in poverty since 2003. But all other reports on India points to ineffectiveness of high GDP growth rate on widespread poverty. According to a recent UN report, 44% of India’s children are malnourished, a rate worse than sub Sahara countries. Who is correct?
Rajesh, USA

The author has not done a good job in his analysis. While he touched on the importance of coalition, he completely ignored a new coalition made of a number of national and state-based parties is under formation and may determine the fate of UPA (and perhaps that of NDA as well). The analysis seemed a little biased towards UPA!
Tony D’Silva, United States

‘Good management and perceptible improvements in living standards’ did not return the parties of Chandrababu Naidu and SM Krishna in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. One of the reasons floated was the undue concentration of both the above gentlemen on urban development. I think it is caste politics and promotion and cultivation of vote banks is the probable answer. Do you agree?
NS Chinnappa, India

In no other country, politicians would have got away scot-free after the suicide of thousands of farmers. On top of that government wasted millions of dollars on loan waiverment to farmers, which rarely reached the affected people. The country also witnessed many terror attacks and inflation is running out of control. The unfortunate part is, India still lacks the critical mass of either middle class or educated people to put fear in the minds of politicians, who are mired in corruption and well known for bad governance.
Sid, India

Thanks goodness the reforms were slowed (and I hope shelved now.) The mess would have been deeper had our insurance companies and pensions been allowed more control by the foreign companies.
Cavery, India

I think the author has failed to read recent articles in the news media which indicate that the NREGA scheme has lead to substantial rural development and is now paying off in the broader economy. He also fails to analyse why the rural economy has grown by 4 % despite bad monsoons. He also missed the all important RTI Act passed by the government, which has became a key tool to fight the pervasive corruption in the country.
Vikram, Austin, US

South Asian voters, vote for anticipated benefits, and not for actually received benefits! A Sri Lanka PM candidate offered rice free, and won resoundingly! When in power she actually legally banned consumption of rice on certain days of the week. Consider Chandrababu Naidu’s current promise of free colour television sets !
Charitha, Sri Lanka

Indian voters who cast votes in most of the elections constitute mainly scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, Muslims, farm labourers, lower class from urban and metro towns. most upper class including well educated from urban and metro towns do not cast votes. If about 99 million youth voters now eligible to vote including educated and upper middle class from cities cast their votes there is likelihood that BJP can make come back. It is high time India must amend its constitution and Election policy on lines of Germany and USA.
Dr Amrit Patel,

Kill corruption and everything else will shine in India.
Chandru Narayan, USA

i had been in India during NDA rule. there was more communal harmony than in previous congress run governments. the NDA govt laid the foundation for widespread growth during their tenure. the present NDA candidate for PM had been deputy PM and senior most leader next only to Mr. Vajpayee- the pm. any PM can never run the govt. with communal mind. it is absurd to think that way. only congress party leaders and supporters can think and propagate in that manner. Advani is a very experienced national leader. he is in federal politics for more than four decades. if his party succeeds in winning the election and able to form the govt., Advani will provide the same efficient steady governance his predecessor has given. people know this but media distorts the political picture. media is not free from prejudices.
Rajendra Domadia, USA